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Analysis of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBBA) nearing final votes in Congress shows that this legislation, based on President Donald Trump’s agenda, could cancel clean energy tax credits and jeopardize 4,500 projects. This puts hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk and is likely to add billions of dollars to annual energy costs for Americans within five years.
“[It’s] terrible,” Robbie Orvis, senior director of modeling and analysis at the clean energy think tank Energy Innovation, told Newsweek. “Hundreds of billions in investment will be vaporized, with potentially very negative long-term ramifications for U.S. manufacturing.”
Energy Innovation used its peer-reviewed energy policy simulator to model the effects of terminating clean energy tax credits and other elements from the House legislation. The final form of the bill is yet to be determined, but many clean energy industry leaders hoped it might improve in the Senate.
Maps produced by Energy Innovation and researchers at Wellesley College show how canceled projects, lost jobs, and higher prices could affect each state. By 2030, the OBBBA could result in the loss of 840,000 jobs associated with renewable energy deployment and manufacturing of clean technology.
Incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 have stimulated at least $321 billion in new private energy and manufacturing investments. Solar, wind, and batteries, especially, have seen phenomenal growth in the U.S., accounting for more than 90 percent of new generating capacity to the nation’s electric grid last year.
Renewable energy and battery storage are now the cheapest and fastest ways to add power to the grid as electric companies meet surging demand. By adding costs to these sources, the OBBBA will drive up electricity prices, according to Orvis.
The analysis showed that rising demand for natural gas will increase its price, driving up power bills. Removing incentives for EVs will also add to long-term transportation fuel costs. The bill’s impacts vary around the country but hit especially hard in some states like South Carolina, where annual energy bills are projected to grow by $770 million.
The Trump administration’s dismantling of federal climate policy and clean energy support has already had a dramatic impact on the tech sector. Research by Wellesley College Professor Jay Turner shows that cancellations, delays, and rollbacks have reached unprecedented levels since 2010.
Since Trump took office, more than 29 clean energy projects have been canceled, paused, or scaled back, affecting $21.6 billion in private investment and 21,287 potential new jobs. Four of those project delays occurred after the OBBBA passed the House.
The “battery belt” states of the Southeast and Midwest, which had seen growth in battery manufacturing, have taken the biggest hits. Investments meant to give the U.S. a foothold in one of the fastest-growing industries globally are now seeing significant slowdowns.
Republican lawmakers are poised to end policies that primarily benefit their states and districts. Although the IRA was championed by a Democratic president and passed without Republican support, most clean energy investments triggered by it have landed in red states, according to Turner’s work.
People are uncertain about what happens next, making long-term decisions about major manufacturing investments difficult. The Energy Innovation analysis showed that many of those battery belt states will suffer significant losses under the OBBBA as higher costs for EV and grid storage battery makers make it harder for them to compete with other countries.
The U.S. policy turn away from clean energy could cede the global market to others, according to Orvis. “China is sitting there just watching this with delight,” he said. “It’s handing it to them on a silver platter.”
📚 Reading Comprehension Quiz
According to the analysis, what could be the potential impact of the OBBBA on clean energy jobs by 2030?
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