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Taiwan Holds High-Stakes Recall Elections as China Watches

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July 25, 2025
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Taiwan Holds High-Stakes Recall Elections as China Watches
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Voters in Taiwan’s cities and counties will head to the polls on Saturday in what local media are calling the “Great Recall.” At stake are nearly two dozen legislators’ jobs, several local leaders’, and the island’s political balance of power, which could significantly impact its relationship with China.

Proponents view this recall as a means to break legislative gridlock. Critics see it as an abuse of democratic process.

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) retained the presidency in January 2024 after Lai Ching-te’s victory, but lost its majority in Taiwan’s 113-seat legislature. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT)—which favors closer engagement with China—and its junior partner, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), have since used their majority to push through parliamentary reforms and enact budget freezes, including cuts to major defense projects.

Critics accuse the opposition of obstructing government policy and weakening Taiwan’s position against China. Beijing claims the self-ruled island as its territory and has not ruled out unification by force, ramping up military pressure on Taiwan in recent years, which intensified after Lai’s inauguration.

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In a unique start to his ruling against President Donald Trump’s administration on September 30, U.S. District Court Judge William Young included a scanned handwritten note sent to his office. The note read: “Trump has pardons and tanks – what do you have?” At the top of Young’s opinion in AAUP v. Rubio, which ruled that Trump’s effort to deport foreign-born student protesters was unconstitutional.

October 8, 2025

Why It Matters

Saturday’s recall election targets 22 KMT lawmakers, one TPP member, and two mayors. A recall succeeds if more than 25 percent of eligible voters participate and a majority votes to remove the official. Those recalled cannot run again in the same district for four years.

With the KMT holding a slim legislative majority, just six or seven successful recalls could tip the balance and give the DPP renewed control over the 113-seat Legislative Yuan. The KMT describes the campaign as an abuse of democratic process, while the DPP views it as a constitutional right for citizens.

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office has denounced the recalls in previous statements, while Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council accuses Beijing of trying to influence the outcome.

The vote could reshape Taiwan’s politics and signal its response to Chinese pressure. If the DPP regains control of the legislature, Beijing may retaliate with a show of force, such as the large-scale military drills it has staged since Lai took office.

What People Are Saying

Tso Chen-dong, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, told Deutsche Welle: “If the mass recall deepens divisions in Taiwanese society, it would be a great opportunity for the Chinese Communist Party to look for excuses and cracks to push forward with its agenda toward Taiwan.”

Yu Laiming, director of Wuhan University’s Institute of Taiwan Studies, wrote in an op-ed for China Daily: “The aggressive purge of dissenting voices on the pretext of the recall vote is a blatant manipulation of public sentiment, trampling on Taiwan’s legislative system. Such actions are not only disgraceful but reprehensible.”

What’s Next

All but five of the recall votes will be held on July 26, 2025. The fate of the other five offices will be decided on August 23.

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