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According to a new report, Russia has a “strong incentive” to use more destructive nuclear weapons as Western militaries build up their missile arsenals and improve air defenses. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British defense think tank, published an analysis stating that “Russian nuclear strategy appears to be at an inflection point.”
The U.S. provides the majority of NATO’s nuclear deterrent. Together with Russia, they control about 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. During Ukraine’s full-scale war, Russian President Vladimir Putin put its nuclear forces on high alert in early 2022, and foreign minister Sergey Lavrov later said there were “considerable” risks of a nuclear conflict.
Russian officials have repeatedly stated that they are no longer bound by previous restrictions on short-range and intermediate-range nuclear and conventional missiles. This month, the Kremlin warned it is not limited by such constraints anymore.
According to RUSI’s report, Moscow believes Washington can more easily neutralize its ability to launch a nuclear strike. Additionally, NATO’s improved air defenses could interfere with Russia’s strategy of using nuclear weapons “in a calibrated or dosed way,” particularly in regional conflicts. This creates a strong incentive for Russia to use nuclear weapons on a larger scale than previously considered.
Strategic nuclear weapons are deployed on intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and those fired from bomber aircraft—capable of leveling entire cities and threatening major global superpowers. Tactical or nonstrategic nuclear weapons have smaller yields and are designed for battlefield use; Western estimates put Russia’s arsenal at between 1,000 to 2,000 warheads, with the U.S. having about 200.
In 1987, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty banned nuclear and conventional missiles capable of striking within 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,400 miles). The treaty is no longer in effect and does not bind either state. The U.S. formally withdrew from the INF Treaty in mid-2019, accusing Moscow of breaching the agreement by developing the SSC-8 ground-launched cruise missile.
Russia then said it would not deploy banned missiles until similar U.S.-manufactured missiles were deployed. In 2025, Russia delivered intermediate-range Oreshnik ballistic missiles to Belarus and fired experimental missiles at Ukraine. That year, Moscow updated its nuclear doctrine to justify a nuclear strike in response to an attack by a non-nuclear country backed by a nuclear-armed nation.
During Trump’s previous term, U.S. nuclear strategy aimed for “flexibility and range,” including modifying some Trident submarine-launched ballistic missile warheads to be lower-yield. The U.S. first deployed these low-yield Trident warheads in early 2020.
