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Critics argue that U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Alaska without Ukraine, could revive an international order centered on great powers. Russia’s quasi-ally China is likely the biggest beneficiary of these talks. Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), believes that Xi Jinping will closely watch the negotiations and apply lessons learned to Taiwan’s context.
U.S. President Trump has warned of “severe consequences” if Putin fails to agree to end the war in Ukraine—a conflict now in its third year. Excluding Ukraine from the talks, European leaders who spoke with Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky express hope but doubt about the talks’ success without Kyiv’s involvement. They caution that “international borders must not be changed by force.”
From Beijing’s perspective, excluding Zelensky signals to Moscow that it may keep seized Ukrainian territory in any peace deal. This could imply that great powers can alter borders through force. Any such “permissive” agreement would damage trust among U.S. allies and partners like Taiwan and embolden China to increase military pressure on its neighbor.
China claims Taiwan as its territory, vowing to unite with it by force if necessary. While the U.S. does not maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, Congress mandates providing weapons under the Taiwan Relations Act. Both Trump and Biden administrations have urged greater efforts to arm Taiwan, arguing that this is the best hope of deterring China from invading—a scenario that would disrupt tech supply chains and undermine the “First Island Chain” of Pacific allies.
Singleton warns against setting a precedent for “deals-over-deterrence.” If Washington appears to “sell out” Ukraine, Beijing will learn that coercion pays with minimal costs. In this case, China may increase People’s Liberation Army incursions around Taiwan and intensify gray-zone pressure to gauge how much stability the U.S. might trade for silence.
Trump has previously demonstrated some willingness to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip. The White House reportedly denied President Lai Ching-te’s request to make a stopover in New York en route to tour Taiwan’s Latin American allies, a move seen as an attempt to sweeten ongoing trade negotiations with Beijing.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy wrote on Telegram: “Pressure on Russia is working. There is no alternative to peace. Clear results are needed. Together, we can ensure this.”
President Trump tweeted on Truth Social: “Very unfair media is at work on my meeting with Putin. Constantly quoting fired losers and really dumb people like John Bolton, who just said that even though the meeting is on American soil, ‘Putin has already won.’ What’s that all about? We are winning on EVERYTHING.”
Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told reporters: “We hope all parties concerned and stakeholders will take part in the negotiation process in due course and reach a fair, lasting and binding peace agreement acceptable to parties concerned at an early date.”
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Trump had suggested they hold a phone conversation following the Alaska summit. However, he has ruled out conceding occupied territory to Russia as part of any agreement—a demand that would violate Ukraine’s constitution.
Top U.S. defense and intelligence officials warn that Xi may move against Taiwan by the end of the decade.
