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What happens when an unstoppable stock meets an immovable short? We might find out soon as Andrew Left’s Citron Research has doubled down on its bearish thesis regarding Palantir.
Last week, while speaking on Fox Business, Citron Research’s Andrew Left declared that he was now short on Palantir and added to his bearish bet after the company’s latest quarterly earnings release, labeling his negative thesis as “obvious.”
Today, Left has doubled down on his bearish conviction by setting a $40 “generous” price target for Palantir, implying a potential downside of around 77% from the current stock price of $173.64.
Left bases this depressed price target on OpenAI’s price-to-sales multiple of about 17x. OpenAI currently has a valuation of approximately $500 billion on projected sales of $29.6 billion in 2026, yielding an approximate 16.89x price-to-sales ratio.
By applying this 17x multiple to Palantir’s expected 2026 revenue of $5.6 billion, Citron Research calculates a theoretical valuation of $95.2 billion, translating into a $40 per share price target.
Palantir has two specialized platforms: Gotham for government data analytics and Foundry for enterprise data agglomeration. The company has also developed its AI Platform (AIP), integrating various LLMs within an organization’s operational structure via AI-powered applications and agents.
Palantir expects its commercial business to generate over $1.302 billion in FY 2025, representing a year-over-year growth rate of at least 85%. CEO Alex Karp aims for this run-rate to grow by 10x over the next five years, implying a CAGR of 58%, according to UBS calculations.
Palantir currently expects revenue of $4.142 – $4.152 billion for FY 2025. Based on the upper bound of this guidance range, Bloomberg’s consensus 2026 revenue estimate of $5.6 billion implies a healthy year-over-year growth rate of 35%.
Nonetheless, Citron Research’s $40 price target starkly illustrates Palantir’s valuation becoming untethered from fundamental analysis.
