Login to Continue Learning
For Kyiv, losing its eastern regions wouldn’t just be a major social and political disaster. It would also be a military nightmare.
After President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last week, the Republican reportedly suggested that Ukraine cede its two eastern regions, Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as Donbas), while freezing the conflict elsewhere. This presents huge problems for Kyiv. Ukraine has always said it will not let go of territory occupied by Russia—and is bound by its constitution to not cede land.
“No one will deviate from this—and no one will be able to,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier this month, “Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier.”
Politically and socially, too, Zelensky’s hands are tied. On the military side, Donetsk is vital to Ukraine’s defensive lines.
#### What Is The Donbas?
The Donbas refers to Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions, located in the eastern part of the country. These are Ukraine’s industrial heartland, with a strong Russian-speaking history. They were home to Moscow-leaning groups before the conflict began. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and supported separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk.
In April 2014, Russian-backed militants declared the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic as independent states, with covert military support from Russia. Moscow claimed to be annexing four Ukrainian regions in fall 2022, including Donetsk and Luhansk, along with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
Much of the heaviest fighting has been concentrated in Donetsk, especially around key cities like Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Pokrovsk. Russia controls roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory, pushing from Luhansk into Kharkiv and seizing small areas in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk.
#### How Much of the Donbas Does Russia Control?
A Russian-appointed official claimed at the start of July that Russia had captured all of Luhansk. However, Western assessments say Ukraine still controls a sliver of the region. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said earlier this month that Ukraine controls roughly 6,500 square kilometers of territory in Donetsk—about a quarter of the region.
Seizing the remainder of Donetsk Oblast will likely take Russian forces multiple years to complete after several difficult campaigns, according to ISW. Russia controls about three-quarters of both Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
#### Why Is The Donbas So Important?
For Ukraine, the Donbas is a vital part of their country—a limb that Ukrainians have died for. It would be tragic for Russia to control these two regions. Ukrainian historian Yaroslav Hrytsak told the BBC that Ukrainian people live there under bombardment and threat to their lives, making it impossible to leave them.
Oleg Dunda, a Ukrainian parliamentarian with Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, told Newsweek that ceding these territories could risk military rebellion in Ukraine and damage spread throughout broader society. The swathes of territory Ukraine still controls include several “fortress cities” like Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Sloviansk, which are key for linking up defenses and blocking Russian advances.
The west of the Donetsk Oblast is a bulwark shielding other regions. A withdrawal from remaining parts of the Donbas—especially the “fortress belt” in Donetsk—would certainly make Ukraine more vulnerable, according to Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at RUSI. Ukraine would need to quickly build massive defenses on Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk borders, which are not well suited for defensive lines.
For Russia, gaining control of the Donbas has always been a core goal. Moscow sees the region as part of its historical sphere of influence. The peninsula hosts Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet and several major airfields and air defense sites, making it essential for projecting power out into the wider Black Sea and beyond.
Losing Crimea in 2014 was a direct challenge to Ukraine’s national identity and sovereignty, weakening Kyiv’s maritime position and giving Russia a forward base for its 2022 full-scale invasion.
