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The share of births to women under 25 is projected to decrease in every world region, according to new data from the Pew Research Center’s analysis of the U.N. Population Division’s 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects.
In Northern America, births to women between the ages of 15 and 24 are expected to make up only 12% of all births by 2100, down from about 23% today and 45% in 1950. This trend is also evident in other regions:
– Europe: From 15% in 2025 to 9% in 2100 (down from 35% in 1950).
– Latin America and the Caribbean: From about 39% in 2025 to 17% in 2100.
– Africa: From 41% in 1950 to 20% by 2100.
Demographers attribute this shift to various factors, including delayed partnership and childbearing, increased labor force participation among women, improved access to contraception, and cultural changes that reduce the emphasis on parenthood. Claire Brindis from the University of California, San Francisco, notes that “no single factor can fully explain these reductions,” citing lower teen sexual activity and higher contraceptive use.
Financial instability also plays a significant role. The 2008 financial crisis, with its effects on housing, inflation, and pay, contributed to delayed childbearing and reduced fertility rates globally. Some policymakers have proposed incentives like “baby bonuses” or expanded parental leave, but researchers argue for broader support such as affordable childcare, paid leave, and gender-equal domestic policies.
Experts warn that without continued investment in young people across all demographics, particularly women, the decline in birth rates could exacerbate issues like population aging and shrink future workforces. This poses significant challenges to pension systems and public services globally.
Claire Brindis emphasizes: “We should recognize that there continue to be segments who are more likely to be at risk—young people who are poor or low-income, those living in rural areas with less education and fewer economic opportunities remain particularly vulnerable.”
Phillip B. Levine from Wellesley College notes that while policies like parental leave and child care subsidies can rapidly affect fertility if effective, changing social conditions that encourage family formation is more complex and time-consuming.
Governments around the world are addressing these declining birth rates by exploring various policy interventions, including providing “baby bonuses” or making childbirth free for privately insured families. Some have even considered tying state transportation funding to birth and marriage rates.
In summary, the global trend toward later childbearing signals significant shifts in family formation that could impact future generations and society at large.
