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The U.K., a NATO member, will face new threats from Russian missiles over the next two decades. A recent report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) warns that European NATO members are scrambling to strengthen their air defense networks and rapidly rearm.
According to the RUSI report, the U.K. needs to bolster its defenses against potential Russian cruise missile attacks in the coming years. Specifically, it should enhance protection around key military sites targeted by Moscow’s cruise missiles. Since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it has introduced several new advanced weapons that are difficult for Western air defenses to detect.
NATO members rely on an inadequate air defense network, with officials emphasizing the need for improved air defenses as alliance countries commit to spending 5% of GDP on defense. In May 2024, The Financial Times reported that NATO had only 5% of the necessary air defenses needed to cover its eastern and central European members in case of a full-scale attack.
Russian cruise missiles will be the primary threat to U.K. military installations for at least the next five years before Russia can deploy significant numbers of experimental weapons. The report by RUSI’s senior research fellow, Sidharth Kaushal, states that different components of the Russian threat are likely to become acute at various points over the next two decades.
The RUSI report also highlights the challenges posed by Russian cruise missiles and their potential to penetrate defense systems. A British military official stated in an interview with Newsweek that the U.K. had simulated a Russian strike based on Russia’s initial attacks on Ukraine, noting that it “was not a pretty picture.” This underscores the need for immediate action.
Different components of the Russian threat are expected to become acute at various points over the next two decades. For now, cruise missiles will be the primary concern, but beyond 2035, defenses against hypersonic glide vehicles may also need to be prioritized. By 2040, protecting against such advanced threats will likely require enhanced strategies and systems.
Russia has deployed new intermediate-range ballistic missiles, such as Oreshnik (“hazel tree”), which have multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capabilities. Additionally, Russia uses Kinzhal and Zircon hypersonic missiles, which were highlighted by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018 as part of the country’s next-generation weapons.
Despite these advancements, Russia currently deploys Oreshnik on a limited scale and prioritizes its hypersonic weapons for deterring the U.S. However, the U.K. must urgently address cruise missile threats before preparing for potential ballistic or hypersonic attacks.
