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Apple currently dominates the global tablet market, but this segment has seen little growth over the years. Tablet owners tend to upgrade their devices less frequently than smartphones and prefer to use tablets as secondary devices. The premium price tag on more powerful versions makes these products unaffordable for many consumers, especially when compared to iPhones.
These factors explain why an analyst predicts that Apple’s first foldable iPad won’t launch until 2028—and even then, it is not expected to receive much enthusiasm from buyers. The use of expensive Ultra-Thin Glass (UTG) could further complicate matters, as this material is highly susceptible to micro-cracks. The complex manufacturing process associated with UTG—cutting, edge treatment, inspection, inner and outer packaging, and shipping—could significantly increase production costs.
According to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the backend processing for UTG could cost up to four times more than traditional smartphone cover glass. This increased expense is due to the sensitive nature of UTG, which requires meticulous handling throughout the manufacturing process. Kuo believes that the foldable iPad will only see shipments of up to a million units.
Given these challenges, Apple’s shipment forecast for 2028 is only between 500,000 and a million units. Producing the device at this scale would barely be worth the effort. In fact, Apple could benefit more financially by focusing on its foldable iPhone, which is estimated to ship between 8-10 million units after its launch next year.
While Kuo predicts that the foldable iPad will debut in 2028, Apple still has several months to refine manufacturing processes and reduce costs. If profitability remains low, the company might decide against launching the product at all.
