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Scientists have observed something unprecedented in the ocean, potentially signaling changes to come. For the first time since records began 40 years ago, the cold, nutrient-rich waters of the Gulf of Panama failed to emerge this year during its typical upwelling season.
The Gulf of Panama’s seasonal upwelling system usually delivers cool, nutrient-rich water via northerly trade winds from January to April. This year, however, it did not occur. Scientists are uncertain if it is a fluke or indicates a new normal.
“This failure could be a real-life example of a climate tipping point,” said Tim Lenton, a tipping point expert at the University of Exeter in the UK. “Time will tell if upwelling continues to fail in future years.”
The findings were reported last week in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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Upwelling is a process where cold, nutrient-rich waters from ocean depths rise to the surface, supporting productive fisheries and protecting coral reefs from thermal stress. In 2025, this vital process did not occur for the first time, reducing typical temperature drops and productivity spikes during this period.
The prime suspect for upwelling suppression is a reduction in trade winds. According to Aaron O’Dea, lead scientist on the project at the Smithsonian Institution’s Tropical Research Institute, “Upwelling typically occurs when the trade winds blow over the Isthmus. That didn’t happen as frequently or strongly as normal years.”
It remains unclear whether human-caused climate change played a role in this year’s upwelling suppression.
This study highlights how climate disruption can rapidly alter fundamental oceanic processes that have sustained coastal fishing communities for thousands of years. Further research is needed to determine the exact cause and its potential consequences for fisheries.
Scientists are monitoring the situation daily through satellite and direct measurements, planning a cruise early next year to sample subsurface waters and assess whether the same phenomenon will occur again.
To better understand what happened and predict future occurrences, O’Dea has gathered collaborators from the Smithsonian and Max Planck Institute to analyze atmospheric and ocean data using high-resolution modeling approaches. This research aims to ignite interest in studying similar events in tropical waters that have always been considered reliable but may no longer be so.
What’s Next?
“We’re monitoring it daily through various means including satellite and direct measurements,” said O’Dea. “We also have a cruise planned early next year to sample the subsurface waters and see if the same thing happens or not.”
To better understand what happened, why, and predict future occurrences, a team of collaborators is analyzing atmospheric and ocean data using high-resolution modeling approaches.
One of O’Dea’s hopes for this research is that it spurs interest in studying similar events in tropical waters. “We have now ignited that interest,” he said. “The next, more challenging task will be to sift through the data and figure out the details.”
This study reveals how climate disruption can quickly alter fundamental oceanic processes that have sustained coastal fishing communities for thousands of years. Further research is needed to determine a precise cause and its potential consequences for fisheries.
For more information, visit the Smithsonian Institution’s Tropical Research Institute.
