Bolivia Heads to First-Ever Presidential Runoff as Centrist Leads

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Bolivian voters have triggered the country’s first-ever presidential runoff after no candidate secured a majority in Sunday’s election. With over 91 percent of ballots counted, centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira leads with 32.8 percent of the vote, followed by right-wing former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga at 26.4 percent. The runoff is scheduled for October 19, marking an unprecedented moment in Bolivia’s electoral history since adopting its current constitution in 2009.

### Why It Matters
This election could end nearly two decades of leftist rule in Bolivia, potentially reshaping the political landscape of South America’s most Indigenous nation. The result reflects deep economic frustration among Bolivia’s 12 million citizens, who face annual inflation exceeding 16 percent and widespread fuel shortages. A right-wing victory would likely trigger significant geopolitical realignment for a country currently allied with Venezuela, China, Russia, and Iran.

### Key Points
– **Election System**: Bolivia’s electoral system requires candidates to win either 50 percent of the vote or 40 percent with a 10-point lead to avoid a runoff—thresholds neither leading candidate achieved.
– **MAS Party Fragmentation**: The fragmentation of Bolivia’s once-dominant Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, founded by former President Evo Morales, created an opening for opposition candidates. Morales, barred from running due to term limits and facing an arrest warrant on statutory rape charges, urged supporters to cast null ballots in protest.
– **Economic Crisis**: The economic crisis has dominated voter concerns, with the country’s natural gas industry collapsing and currency reserves dwindling.

### Campaign Messages
– **Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira** posted: “This August 17 we will win. Grateful to all the people, brothers, sisters, who joined us at our campaign closing in the city of #ElAlto #Bolivia #elecciones2025 #cierredecampaña #pdc #victoria #rodrigopaz.”
– **Former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga** said: “The day has arrived, #17Ago, let’s all go vote. #BoliviaVota.”

In a unique start to his ruling against President Donald Trump’s administration on September 30, U.S. District Court Judge William Young included a scanned handwritten note sent to his office. The note read: “Trump has pardons and tanks – what do you have?” At the top of Young’s opinion in AAUP v. Rubio, which ruled that Trump’s effort to deport foreign-born student protesters was unconstitutional.

October 8, 2025

### Voter Perspectives
– Eileen Mirabal, a 30-year-old psychologist and voter, told the Associated Press: “The economy is a disaster right now, so all I could bring myself to do was vote for change.”
– Ronaldo Olorio, a former Morales supporter, said: “People were waiting for a new, popular candidate, and in this, the opposition failed us. My vote is one of anger, of discontent.”

### Image Caption
An Indigenous man casts his vote at a polling station during the presidential election at the Kentupata community in Laja, La Paz department, Bolivia on August 17, 2025.

### What Happens Next?
The October 19 runoff will likely pit Paz against Quiroga, though final results remain pending. Both candidates have promised to restore diplomatic ties with the United States, which were ruptured in 2008 when Morales expelled the American ambassador. They’ve also pledged to attract foreign investment to develop Bolivia’s vast lithium reserves—crucial for global battery production.

Reporting from the Associated Press contributed to this article.