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Kremlin demands for Ukraine to cede territory in the Donetsk region to Russia for a ceasefire could hand Moscow a significant battlefield advantage, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ahead of a summit between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska next week, reports cited by ISW suggest that Ukrainian territory partially occupied by Russia could be given up to Moscow in exchange for an end to the fighting.
The Washington, D.C., think tank stated that surrendering strategically vital unoccupied territory in the Donetsk region could force Ukraine to abandon its main defensive line in the region, known as the “fortress belt.” This belt consists of four large cities and other towns running north to south over 30 miles along a major highway. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has not yet commented on these reports.
The fortress belt has proved an obstacle to Russian territorial ambitions since 2014. Trump has indicated that peace talks in Alaska on August 15 will likely discuss “some swapping of territories.” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, however, has repeatedly rejected this move, citing the Ukrainian Constitution.
According to ISW, Kremlin officials want Ukraine to cede Crimea and all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that make up the Donbas region. They also wish for other parts of the front line to be frozen in a ceasefire. This would include Kyiv withdrawing troops from Ukrainian-controlled territory in the Donbas, which Moscow has tried but failed to capture.
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Handing over the whole region for a ceasefire with no final peace settlement would allow Moscow’s forces to renew attacks on much more favorable terms without further struggle for the territory where they are trying to envelop from the southwest. Russian forces failed to fully envelope Ukraine’s fortress belt in 2022, and such an operation would likely take years and involve high personnel and equipment losses.
Ceding Ukrainian-held parts of the Donetsk region would allow Moscow to avoid these complications and let its forces move closer to the border with the region, which is significantly less defensible than the current line. This would force Ukraine to build fortifications along the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk border areas, terrain that is poorly suited for a defensive line.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), such a move could hand Russia control of the main fortified defensive line in the Donetsk region, which Ukraine has spent over a decade reinforcing. The ISW also noted that Russian forces will likely violate any future ceasefire or peace agreement unless it includes robust monitoring mechanisms and security guarantees for Ukraine.
Ahead of the summit between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15, the stakes are high both diplomatically and militarily. The ISW and other analysts argue that a temporary ceasefire should not be confused with lasting peace, as Putin’s goal is to achieve political control over Ukraine.
In comments sent to Newsweek, John Herbst from the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center stated that territorial concessions to Moscow are “front-loaded,” but critical issues must be resolved in subsequent negotiations. These include Moscow’s response to U.S. and NATO arming of Ukraine and potential European peacekeepers in Ukraine.
On Saturday, Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s unwillingness to cede territory for peace, adding to the anticipation about whether the upcoming summit can yield a breakthrough.
📚 Reading Comprehension Quiz
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), what could be a significant battlefield advantage for Russia if Ukraine cedes unoccupied territory in the Donetsk region?
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