Quantum Computing: A $879B Threat to Bitcoin?

In a unique start to his ruling against President Donald Trump’s administration on September 30, U.S. District Court Judge William Young included a scanned handwritten note sent to his office. The note read: “Trump has pardons and tanks – what do you have?” At the top of Young’s opinion in AAUP v. Rubio, which ruled that Trump’s effort to deport foreign-born student protesters was unconstitutional.

October 8, 2025

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Quantum computing stocks have been in the spotlight since December 2024, when Google’s cutting-edge Willow chip managed a computation task in under 5 minutes. This is while today’s fastest supercomputers would take 10 septillion (10^25) years to complete the same task. The breakthrough captured the imagination of not only the market but also established innovators such as Elon Musk and OpenAI’s Sam Altman.

Google’s Willow quantum computing architecture is revolutionary for two reasons: it dynamically reduces errors as more qubits are added, overcoming a major challenge in the field.

This development initially prompted doomsday predictions for Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s wallets use AES encryption that theoretically remains vulnerable to quantum computing advancements. However, at the time, we noted that such fears were largely misplaced. Cracking the cryptocurrency’s encryption would require as many as 1,500 qubits working continuously for 15 to 20 years. For context, Google’s Willow chip currently consists of just 105 qubits.

Despite this, quantum computing will eventually become powerful enough to crack AES encryption. When that happens, it could unleash a massive $879 billion market, based on today’s Bitcoin price of around $112,000 per coin.

A recent analysis by Sound Money Report’s Ronan Manly reveals that between 2.3 million and 7.8 million BTC—equivalent to between 11 percent and 37 percent of the total circulating supply—are currently in dormant wallets, inaccessible due to forgotten encryption keys or untimely deaths.

This means up to 37 percent of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply might become accessible once quantum computing can crack AES encryption. This could result in a huge payday for early movers and potentially trigger an entire bearish cycle for Bitcoin itself.

By then, the majority of Bitcoin holders will have transitioned to wallets hardened against quantum computing attacks. However, dormant wallets, especially those lost due to untimely deaths, likely won’t be able to do so.

Of course, this huge payday is still a ways off given the current limitations of quantum computing systems.