South Korea’s military has shrunk by 20 percent over the past six years due to the world’s lowest birth rate, which is reducing the pool of men available for enlistment. According to a new report from the country’s defense ministry, South Korea’s fertility rate stood at just 0.75 births per woman in 2024, well below the 2.1 rate needed for population sustainability. That same year, over 20 percent of the population was aged 65 and older, making South Korea a “super-aged” society alongside Japan.

These demographic shifts are expected to have significant impacts on both the world’s fourth-largest economy and its security, particularly amid heightened tensions with nuclear-armed North Korea. As of 2019, South Korea’s active-duty force numbered approximately 450,000, down by about 110,000 troops from six years earlier. With 17 divisions disbanded or merged, the army has been most affected, losing more than 100,000 soldiers over that period.

The percentage of enlistees who become career officers is now roughly half what it was previously. The defense ministry estimates a shortfall of about 50,000 troops to maintain adequate defense readiness. The number of conscriptible 20-year-old men has fallen by 30 percent since 2019, to around 230,000.

Some analysts suggest that technology could play a role in mitigating these effects by streamlining modern standing armies. However, others are less optimistic about the limits of technological substitution when facing a heavily armed adversary. North Korea maintains more than twice as many active-duty troops and continues to expand its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs.

South Korea has invested over $200 billion since 2008 in pro-natal programs, including fertility treatments and housing subsidies, but the number of births rose for the first time in a decade in 2024. This increase was driven by marriages among women in their early to mid-30s, known as Korea’s “second baby boomers.” However, it remains uncertain whether this trend will continue long-term.

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In response to these challenges, South Korean soldiers participated in Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025, Australia’s largest-ever military drills held near Rockhampton. The event showcased the ongoing commitment to international cooperation and readiness despite demographic pressures.