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Russian officials aim to weaken cohesion between the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe by promoting Europe as a barrier to any deal ending the war. This strategy was highlighted by Viktor Kovalenko, a Ukrainian geopolitical analyst, who told Newsweek on Monday that the summit is “a vital diplomatic breakthrough for both the U.S. and Ukraine.”
The ISW assessment suggests that Russian officials want to portray Ukraine and Europe rather than Russia as obstacles to peace. For instance, Russian political scientist Sergei Markov stated in The Washington Post that Russia’s primary interest is to depict Ukraine and Europe as barriers to a deal.
Meanwhile, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev criticized European countries on social media for trying to prevent a quick peace settlement in Ukraine. Leonid Slutsky, head of the Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), also expressed similar sentiments.
The ISW concluded that Moscow remains committed to its long-term goals of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, installing a pro-Russian proxy government, and demilitarizing Ukraine. It is likely that Russia will violate any ceasefire while blaming Ukraine for violations, as it did in spring 2025.
According to the ISW, the White House is considering inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the summit. If Zelensky were invited, he could propose a phased deal where Russian forces withdraw from most of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in exchange for gradual sanctions relief. Crucially, Ukraine must retain its so-called “fortress belt” in Donetsk and Luhansk to prevent future Russian incursions.
The ISW stated on Sunday that the Kremlin is attempting to use the upcoming Alaska summit to divide the United States from Europe rather than engage in meaningful peace efforts.
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysis suggests that before the Alaska summit, diplomatic wrangling will continue. European leaders are likely to push discussions toward a ceasefire based on the current front line as a first step toward a broader settlement, rather than a proposal to swap land for peace.
Viktor Kovalenko from Ukraine Decoded substack emphasized that while the Alaska summit could halt the bloodshed, it risks becoming a diplomatic mirage without Ukraine’s buy-in and a focus on Russian withdrawal from key regions.
