UBS Warns: iPhone 17 Base Model Demand Hits Apple Hard

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Too much of anything can be detrimental, even success. This is what Apple is now discovering, thanks to the overwhelming demand for the base model of the iPhone 17.

Over the past few days, we’ve been sharing intermittent updates on the demand profile for various iPhone 17 models based on lead times across different geographical locations. The emerging consensus indicates that the base variant has seen exceptionally high demand among all iPhone 17 models.

BofA analyst Wamsi Mohan highlighted in a recent investment note that ship times for the iPhone 17 (18 days) are longer compared to last year’s iPhone 16 (10 days). This is particularly true in China, where demand is driven by:
– A 15% government subsidy on electronics
– The unavailability of the iPhone Air due to regulatory delays

The base variant now supports Pro-level features such as:
– A 120Hz ProMotion display with variable refresh rate for improved battery performance.
– A new 48-megapixel ultrawide camera lens, compared to a 12-megapixel one on the iPhone 16 base model.
– A 48-megapixel main camera providing 2x optical-quality telephoto zoom capabilities.
– An 18-megapixel selfie camera, versus a 12-megapixel one on the iPhone 16 base model.
– Ramped-up base storage of 256GB.
– The same retail price of $799 as the base iPhone 16.

In a unique start to his ruling against President Donald Trump’s administration on September 30, U.S. District Court Judge William Young included a scanned handwritten note sent to his office. The note read: “Trump has pardons and tanks – what do you have?” At the top of Young’s opinion in AAUP v. Rubio, which ruled that Trump’s effort to deport foreign-born student protesters was unconstitutional.

October 8, 2025

UBS Analyst David Vogt’s Insights

In a new investment note, UBS analyst David Vogt points out:

Lead times data from UBS Evidence Lab indicate “elevated” demand for the base iPhone 17 but “relatively muted” demand for the other three models.
Apple suppliers are increasing production of the base iPhone 17, though significant adjustments to iPhone builds usually start in November.
In China, wait times for the Pro and Pro Max models have been consistent year-over-year, while wait times for the Air model (equivalent to the 16 Plus) have decreased or remained flat.
This time around, both the Pro and Pro Max models experienced price increases, but the base iPhone 17 has seen an implied price cut due to its new storage capacity.
These dynamics suggest limited upside for Apple’s Average Selling Price (ASP).

This suggests that Apple might be a victim of its own success with the base iPhone 17 model. What are your thoughts? Share them in the comments below.