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What Military Security Guarantees Could Look Like for Ukraine?

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August 20, 2025
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What Military Security Guarantees Could Look Like for Ukraine?
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Russia has agreed that Ukraine needs security guarantees to deter future attacks. President Donald Trump announced this in a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who confirmed Moscow’s willingness “to accept security guarantees for Ukraine.” European nations would bear much of the responsibility.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the White House alongside several European leaders following his meeting with Putin in Alaska. Trump described the meeting as “extremely productive.”

Security guarantees aim to enforce an agreement to end the war, ensuring Russia does not use a ceasefire or peace deal to strengthen its military position and then renew attacks on Ukraine.

Ukraine has long insisted that security guarantees are necessary to prevent Russia from using a ceasefire or peace deal to bolster its military. NATO membership is seen as the best form of guarantee for Kyiv’s security.

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NATO members must consider an attack on one state as an attack on all, per Article 5 of the alliance’s founding treaty. However, Putin has stated that Ukraine should not join NATO and insisted it remain neutral. Ukraine also seeks EU membership.

Trump said NATO membership was off the table for Ukraine before his meeting with Zelensky. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, announced on Sunday that Ukraine would have “Article 5-like” protections to deter future Russian attacks.

NATO has officially stated that Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path to membership but U.S. Secretary-General Mark Rutte told Fox News that the U.S. and some other countries oppose NATO membership for Ukraine. Instead, they are discussing Article 5-type security guarantees for Ukraine.

European leaders formed a “coalition of the willing” months ago, agreeing to provide forces to ensure Russia does not violate any ceasefire or peace deal. European nations will be the first line of defense, but the U.S. would also play a role as a backstop.

Zelensky joined Rutte, Keir Starmer (British Prime Minister), Emmanuel Macron (French President), Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister), Friedrich Merz (German Chancellor), Alexander Stubb (Finnish president), and Ursula von der Leyen, the EU’s executive head.

European countries will be primarily responsible for ensuring Russia does not break a ceasefire or peace deal. The U.S. would provide a backstop if necessary.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry rejected NATO troop presence in Ukraine. Mikhail Ulyanov, one of Russia’s envoys, stated that Moscow “agrees” with security guarantees but wants equal assurances.

In 2014 and 2022, Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum, a political pledge from 1994 that safeguarded Ukraine’s independence and borders. Zelensky warned that just signatures or promises are not enough for security.

Zelensky also mentioned an arms deal worth approximately $90 billion between the U.S. and Ukraine as part of the security guarantees.

U.S. and European officials will immediately begin work on these security guarantees, with ensuring no restrictions on Ukraine’s armed forces being a top priority.

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